by CalculatedRisk on 5/04/2011 08:15:00 AM

ADP reports:

Employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 179,000 from March to April on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from February 2011 to March 2011 was revised up to 207,000 from the previously reported increase of 201,000.
...
April’s ADP Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 138,000, marking 16 consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 41,000, the sixth consecutive monthly gain, while manufacturing employment rose 25,000, the seventh consecutive monthly gain.
...
In April, employment in the construction industry increased 9,000, only the second monthly increase since June 2007. Since December 2010, however, construction employment has, on balance, risen, suggesting that finally employment in this sector has bottomed out. The total decrease in construction employment since its peak in January 2007 is 2,115,000.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

This was slightly below the consensus forecast of an increase of about 195,000 private sector jobs in April. Note the slight increase in construction jobs - it appears this sector has "bottomed out".

The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 185,000 payroll jobs in April, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.8%.

by CalculatedRisk on 5/04/2011 07:19:00 AM

The MBA reports: Latest MBA Weekly Survey Shows Increase in Mortgage Applications, Driven by Refinances

The Refinance Index increased 6.0 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased for the third consecutive week to 4.76 percent from 4.80 percent, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed contract rate since December 3, 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Refinance activity increased as mortgage rates fell to the lowest level since December 2010.

The four week average of purchase activity is at about 1997 levels, although this doesn't include the very high percentage of cash buyers. This suggests weak existing home sales through June (not counting cash buyers).

by CalculatedRisk on 5/03/2011 10:08:00 PM

Earlier today from Bloomberg: Portugal Agrees on Aid Plan With Wider Deficit Targets

Portugal reached an agreement with officials preparing its European Union-led bailout that will provide as much as 78 billion euros ($116 billion) in aid and allow more time to reduce the country’s budget deficit.

The three-year plan set goals for a budget deficit of 5.9 percent of gross domestic product this year, 4.5 percent in 2012 and 3 percent in 2013, Prime Minister Jose Socrates said in Lisbon today.

The yield on Portugal's ten year bonds decreased slightly to 9.6% today and the two year yield declined slightly to 11.8%.

Earlier:
• U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 13.2 million SAAR in April
• Lawler: Monthly Report to Commissioner Suggests Serious REO Inventory Problem at FHA

by CalculatedRisk on 5/03/2011 07:05:00 PM

Ted Nesi at WPRI.com has been following the price reductions on Gov. Lincoln Chafee's house in Rhode Island: Chafee drops asking price for Providence home by $30,000

[T]he governor and his wife reduced the asking price for their 3,900-square-foot home on Providence’s East Side by another $30,000.

The Chafees are now seeking $799,000 ... That’s down 10% from the initial listing price of $889,000 they sought in mid-February. The Chafees had already reduced the price to $829,000 last month.

The Chafees bought the house for $939,000 in 2006

When this house was first listed, I argued we'd see a price reduction. Although Case-Shiller doesn't track Providence, house prices have fallen about 15% in Boston and 23% in New York - and that would suggest a selling price in the $700s for the Chafees' home. So many homeowners are unwilling to price their homes realistically - at least the Chafees have been willing to reduce the price.

by CalculatedRisk on 5/03/2011 04:10:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 13.17 million SAAR in April. That is up 17% from April 2010, and up 0.8% from the sales rate last month (March 2011).

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for April (red, light vehicle sales of 13.17 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This was above the consensus estimate of 13.0 million SAAR.

Note: The Japanese supply chain disruptions will impact sales over the next several months and I expect sales to be below this level for the next 6 months or so.